JEDDAH — Saudi Arabia is expected to experience warmer-than-normal conditions across most regions from August through October 2026, with rainfall forecast to become more widespread toward the end of the period, according to the National Center for Meteorology (NCM).
The NCM’s seasonal outlook indicates a 60 to 80 percent probability of above-normal surface temperatures during the three-month period, with temperatures forecast to rise by as much as 2°C above the climatic average in parts of the Kingdom.
The center’s long-term climate analysis also shows that August is typically the Kingdom’s hottest month, recording the highest average, maximum and minimum temperatures before temperatures gradually decline during September and October.
In August, the probability of above-normal temperatures ranges between 55 and 80 percent across Saudi Arabia. The largest increase, reaching up to 2.5°C above normal, is expected in parts of western Al-Baha, western Asir and southwestern Makkah.
NCM’s map showing the areas forecast to experience above average temperatures in October.
Above-normal temperatures are also forecast across most regions in September, with probabilities ranging between 65 and 80 percent and increases of up to 2°C in some areas.
In October, the probability ranges between 40 and 80 percent, with temperatures potentially reaching 2.5°C above normal in parts of southern, southwestern and eastern Saudi Arabia.
The NCM’s historical records also show that the highest temperature recorded in August was 51°C, registered at Qaisumah on Aug. 19, 1998, and at Dammam on Aug. 13, 2021.
The highest September temperature was 49.4°C, recorded in Makkah on Sept. 9, 1988, and Rafha on Sept. 30, 2019, while Rafha recorded an October high of 48.4°C on Oct. 12, 2019.
Rainfall is expected to vary considerably throughout the period. August is forecast to bring below-normal rainfall to Jazan, Al-Baha and parts of several western, southern and central regions, with probabilities ranging between 45 and 60 percent.
The likelihood of above-normal rainfall increases in September, reaching between 45 and 70 percent across Tabuk, Madinah and Al-Baha, as well as parts of several northern and western regions. By October, above-normal rainfall is forecast across most of the Kingdom, with probabilities ranging between 40 and 80 percent.
Based on historical climate averages, Jazan records the highest average August rainfall among the monitored stations at 32.3 millimeters, followed by Khamis Mushait at 29.5 millimeters and Abha at 25.9 millimeters.
NCM’s map showing the areas forecast to experience rainfall in the coming months.
In October, Jazan records the highest average monthly rainfall at 20.2 millimeters, followed by Makkah at 16.8 millimeters and Taif at 16.1 millimeters.
The highest daily rainfall recorded in August was 113.7 millimeters in Jazan on Aug. 23, 2024. The highest daily rainfall recorded in September was 51.6 millimeters in Taif on Sept. 17, 1997, while October’s highest daily total reached 90 millimeters in Jazan on Oct. 22, 1997.
The center cautioned that exceptional heavy-rainfall events may not appear clearly in long-range climate models and should instead be monitored through its short-range forecasts and early-warning alerts.
The outlook also forecasts positive wind-speed anomalies during the period, with maximum anomalies reaching approximately 1.2 meters per second over southern Saudi Arabia in August, 1.5 meters per second across parts of southern Saudi Arabia in September, and 2.4 meters per second over parts of south-central and eastern Saudi Arabia in October.
Source: Saudi Gazette